In 2023, China will Increase 230GW! Set Record

According to a report by Wood Mackenzie, China’s new installed solar and wind capacity will reach a record 230GW this year, about three times that of other countries around the world.

The report titled “How China Becomes a Global Leader in Renewable Energy” predicts that China’s new installed solar and wind energy capacity in 2023 will greatly exceed Europe’s projected 75GW and the United States’ 40GW.

Alex Whitworth, Vice President and Head of Asia Pacific Power and Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie, said, “In 2020, China announced a 2060 carbon neutrality target. Since then, China has been quietly restructuring its entire power sector to support rapid electrification. and the expansion of renewable energy.”

“While some other markets are slowing down their renewable energy targets, China has raised its 2025 wind and solar forecasts by 43%, or 380GW, in just a few years.”

The report concludes that direct government support for these projects is the driving force for new installations and notes that between 2021 and 2025, government investment commitments for new grids alone will reach $455 billion, while grid availability is a key factor in many countries such as the United States. Key constraints in the renewable energy market.

Wood Mackenzie expects this support to lead to a record level of new renewable energy capacity additions this year, up from 140.6GW in 2022, as shown in the chart below.

China’s newly installed renewable energy capacity this year is expected to be equivalent to the total installed renewable energy capacity in the United States in 2017, indicating the expansion speed of China’s renewable energy power industry.

Wood Mackenzie noted that continued grid investment has reduced China’s solar curtailment rate to 2% in 2022, which is particularly encouraging for the solar industry. This compares with 2020 curtailment levels of more than 10%, and investment in infrastructure will be crucial if solar is to take a prominent place in China’s energy mix.

However, the report also raises questions about whether China can replace fossil fuels with renewable energy, especially solar energy.

China approved 106GW of new coal power capacity in 2022, and the government’s total coal power capacity under construction is 200GW. This shows that this year’s record-breaking level of investment in renewable energy has just matched China’s investment in new coal power stations, and more commitments in renewable energy are needed to change the balance of China’s energy structure.

To support the continued growth of the global solar industry, Chinese companies have made significant investments in module production. Wood Mackenzie reports that by 2032, China’s supply chain alone will be able to meet the world’s annual solar demand.

However, many of these modules are sold to Europe, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand for solar modules in Europe. It has also pushed the price of European-made modules to recent lows, leaving Europe’s manufacturing industry almost financially desperate and raising questions about how the global solar supply chain should respond to China’s increased output.